Energy Sector Decarbonisation Pathways to Meet a National Net Zero Emissions Target By 2050

01 May 2025

This report presents key findings from a study conducted by the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in support of the Presidential Climate Commission’s work on South Africa’s just energy transition. The research explores 40 long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathways to assess how South Africa could reach net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 or 2055. The study analyses potential mitigation options in the energy, transport, and industrial sectors, evaluating their socio-economic impacts, and the influence of complementary measures such as carbon tax implementation, localisation of energy supply chains, and energy efficiency interventions. It also highlights the environmental co-benefits of decarbonisation, including improvements in air and water quality. Three key net zero scenarios are analysed in greater detail to inform policy decisions and support South Africa’s efforts toward a low-carbon, resilient, and inclusive energy future.